Friday, February 21, 2020

Why I believe cyclists need to vote for Measure I

I've made various cases for passing Measure I - the re-upping of the sales tax for SMART. Here is my down and dirty argument why cyclists should support Measure I.

It is incredibly important at this point for anyone who cares about cycling in Sonoma County to vote for Measure I.

Why? Path? Trains? Sustainability? Finances?

Nope. Politics.

At this point, every Supervisor in the County, National Representative, State Representative, Mayors, etc... have endorsed Measure I. All of the key stakeholder organizations I know of have endorsed Measure I. Except one - the Sonoma County Bicycle Coalition. The SCBC took a "no endorsement" position. I am on the board, and I disagreed with this position. Hey, it's a democracy.

The net result is that if this measure loses, "The Cyclists" will be blamed. Not just SCBC (700 members) - the closest thing to a political arm of this demographic. I mean the thousands who bike every day, line up for Levi's Gran Fondo, students who bike to school. etc... A recent Press Democrat editorial referred to "a few disgruntled bike advocates". Not a good look.

We have spent decades becoming non-marginalized. Slowly and surely building political capital. And now in order to "teach SMART a lesson", we are trying to blow up all that hard work and piss off the entire power structure in the county. This political capital is why we were able to get in their face and clear out the Rodota Trail. Why the mistrial in Amy Suyama's death was pushed for a retrial where the assailant was convicted. Why new road projects might just have a complete streets component. Why we get bike lanes and paths. Why we get targeted enforcement efforts on the road, and bait bikes in the racks.

Shortly, the Sonoma County Transportation Authority will start work on redoing Measure M. It was a 1/4 cent sales tax passed in 2004 for transportation projects. Four Percent of that money went to bike/ped projects. That's a LOT of money for our projects.

The draft renewal for Measure M almost triples that amount to 11%. That's a lot of beans. A group led by Supervisor Lynda Hopkins' husband Emmitt Hopkins is lobbying to get that number up to 20%. At some point that measure will be put in stone and there will be a number.

The SMART train is a key component of SCTA's vision. The original measure M put 5% of the money towards some of the original push for SMART. The board of the SCTA is heavily invested in SMART - four of the board members are on the SMART board, the head is Supervisor Gorin who has endorsed the measure.

If the final bike/ped percentage in Measure M drops by a percent or two it would be a disaster. The process doesn't even need to be capricious - there are a lot of very important competing wants for that money, and groups like SOSRoads will be advocating for that money for the roads instead of bike ped, often roads like CA-12 or the Narrows that we are not allowed to use. We don't need to be seen as an enemy, just as a uncooperative group, to lose the support that gets us funding and support.

Who exactly will be taught a lesson if Measure I fails? At this point I'm afraid it might be Sonoma County Cyclists. Don't hate the player, hate the game.

Monday, February 3, 2020

SMART Measure I Sales Tax extension on March Primary Ballot

The Sonoma Marin Train is putting an extension to their 1/4 cent sales tax on the ballot this March. The current sales tax does not expire until 2028, this would extend it another 30 years. I posted the following in some Sonoma County Facebook groups. Enjoy. SMART began in earnest in 2008 when Measure Q passed. That’s a 20 year sales tax, money comes in over 20 years, but the construction - the big costs - are frontloaded. Think of how most people buy a home - they take out a mortgage because they need a place to live, build equity, etc now, but they don’t have the money to pay cash. For this mortgage they pay interest. Same for public works - SMART wrote bonds to build the train. If you hold a mortgage and you haven’t refinanced it in the last couple of years, you are forking money over to the banks because your rate is probably higher than your original note. But a refinance is like a purchase - the bank will check your income, credit scores, etc and you have to qualify. Same for SMART. They want to refinance their bonds. This will save SMART 12 million dollars a year of YOUR MONEY. If you want SMART to run more frequently, or build more parking, or extend to the North - it is easier to fulfill that vision with more money. And this 12 million in savings isn’t coming from the taxpayers - it’s coming from the banks! Boo banks! Boo! But in order to refinance - the banks want to see SMART’s finances. Their balance sheet is strong. They are running an effective operation that is qualifying for very competitive federal and regional grants - a big chunk of the Windsor and Larkspur extension came from outside agencies (not our money!) because no matter the flaws, SMART is up, running, and very popular with riders for what is really an infant organization. But the banks won’t refinance because the sales tax ends in 2028. A refi also stretches out the debt schedule and the bank doesn’t want to take risk beyond the sunset of the tax. So if Measure I fails - you, me, Mike - as taxpayers we fork over an extra 12 million a year in interest to the bond holders. That’s bogus, dude! But let’s say you hate trains, or are annoyed that it turned out to cost way too much to fix the tracks from Windsor to Healdsburg compared to the tax. Maybe it bothers you that the bike path isn’t compete (even though SMART has taken 150,000 cyclists on train with bike, trips beyond the distance those bike riders could do unassisted). So you don’t care if we pay the extra 12 million a year the next 8 years (that’s 96 million bucks). So you vote against measure I and it fails. Then what? SMART has 8 more years to try again. And somewhere along the line it will pass. The younger generation is more interested in phones than cars. They like trains and bikes and they’ll still be alive and voting in 2026 and some of the old folks against it will be no longer voting. So we still pass a tax extension but waste all that money. Or let’s say it never passes. Then SMART has no money for operations, goes into bankruptcy, and defaults on the bonds. The biggest bond holder for SMART is CalPers - the California State Pension Organization. Bonds are also held by fireman’s and police pensions, teachers, etc. If SMART goes bankrupt - WE WILL STILL HAVE TO PAY THE MONEY - in the form of state funds being used to make the pensions whole, or higher interest rates on home loans by banks that held the debt. This is a math problem, not a philosophical one. Passing Measure I is simple math - if you vote yes, the taxpayers pay less interest, if you vote no, the taxpayers pay more interest. SMART is a public agency owned by us. Their debt is our debt. Let’s pass this measure, refinance the bonds, and get this train to Windsor in 2021 (funded not by debt but by grants) and onwards for the younger generations who want to be riding this thing long after we are on that last train to your chosen religious affiliations final destination. Sincerely - Casey Jones. You better, watch that speed.